May 2017

Summary: Box office revenues for this holiday weekend were the weakest since 1999.  Why is that? Some say the movies were not very good, but I think it’s more likely that this is just another piece of evidence that supports the fact that the consumer is in much worse shape than is generally perceived. Hopefully

Summary: The Fed is now indicating it needs evidence that  the Q1 weak economic data is transitory and not a trend.  This is interesting for 2 reasons.  The Fed’s narrative has always been to tout economic growth even in the face of flimsy or no supporting data.  Now the Fed is actually admitting there is

Summary:  The dollar’s decline really started with the Fed’s too-little-too late rate hikes.  The rally of 2014 – 2015 was fueled by expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy that did not materialize. We’ve been trending sideways since then with the exception of an upward spike after the Trump victory.  Now, as much of the

Summary: Republicans face chaos around Trump’s political difficulties, causing some to consider potential advantages of a President Pence.  Market volatility has not yet brought the DJIA below pre-Trump numbers while the dollar index slides and gold moves up. Meanwhile, household debt is higher than 2008 levels even as fewer Americans own homes. It looks like

Summary: The retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis. Retailing has been responsible for 10% of the jobs gained during this so-called recovery. Clearly part of the problem is the increase in minimum wage.  Why are retailers adding so many jobs when their

Summary: Trump fantasy persists in the face of weakening economic data, health care and tax reform uncertainty. The reality is that the damage done to the economy will not right itself just because Trump has been elected and we are in for a wild ride whether or not President Trump decides to do the right

SchiffReport recorded Saturday, May 6 On Wednesday of this week, the Federal Reserve against a rate hike in May But based on their official statement, the market assigned a much higher probability To a rate hike coming in June In fact, following Friday’s slightly better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report, the probability of a June rate hike

Summary:  Last quarter the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP  forecast was 3.4% in February. The most recent number was actually .7%.  After all the negative economic data that came out today suggesting that Q1 could be revised lower, the Atlanta Fed came out with their forecast for Q2 GDP at 4.3%.  How is this possible, with