AOC Right for the Wrong Reasons – Ep. 456

May 13 – 15, 2019
Recorded April 2, 2019

February Durable Goods Order Declined Slightly Less Than Expected

We had a quiet day in the U.S. stock market today.  Not much reaction from a slightly weaker than expected February Durable Goods Orders number that came out before the market opened.  They were looking for a weak number; the consensus was for a decline of 1.8% – we got a decline of slightly less than that: 1.6%. They revised the prior month down from +.4% to +.1%, so we declined less, but from a lower number. Overall, slightly weaker.  In fact, the Core Capital Goods number was also slightly weaker.  They were looking for a rise of .2%; instead, we had a drop of .1% – although they revised the prior month up from .8% to .9%.  Still a little weaker on the day.

Lyft Hitting Lows

But the market still seems to be oblivious to the weak data, in fact later in the day we did get the auto sales numbers that were disappointing, as well. A lot of bad news is being routinely overlooked by Wall Street.  Lyft, the company that went public on Friday: I discussed the lackluster performance of that IPO on Friday.  In fact, most of the commentary that I listened to or saw was positive.  They were describing the Lyft IPO as a big success… everything went great… the stock went up… But what concerned me about the stock was not how it went up, but how weakly it closed. It pretty much closed on the low of the day.  It had sold off pretty much all day, following the pop on the open.

Lyft Sank into Bear Market on Day 2

The stock came public at $72 and it immediately traded as high as $88.6, but closed the first day of trading at $78.29. Still above the $72 opening, but anybody who bought the opening print was down.  Then it got clobbered on Monday and it fell again today.  It only closed down slightly.  It closed relatively near the highs of the day, but the low was $66.10.  That’s 25% below the peak price on Friday. So that’s a bear market.  In fact, officially Lyft sank into a bear market on its second day as a public company.  So that bear market got even worse today.  The stock is now better than 8% below its IPO price.