- Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip
- Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter “doesn’t count”
- This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth
- Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions – Obamacare and inventory build
- Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009
- What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1?
- Data confirms that the consumer is already broke
- Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices
- Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong
- The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis
- The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE
- Changing trend coming in the dollar
- Changing trend in the oil market
- Changing trend in the gold market
- If we don’t get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4?
- Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes
- Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9
- March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months
- Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months
- Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales
- Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009)
- My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality
- April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low
- Employment down
- Hours worked down
- New orders down to 3-year lows
- Prices paid went up
- March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations – 4th consecutive month below estimate
- This news can’t be blamed on April showers
- Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong bet