- The Foreign exchange markets continue to ignore the darkening U.S. economic picture
- Dollar had best two-week gain since the financial crisis of 2008
- Market exuberance based solely on the jobs report which is an outlier among all other negative news
- Why aren’t the jobs numbers being questioned?
- We have had three consecutive months of declining retail sales
- Falling prices are reflecting a lack of demand
- The stock market has begun to decline, bracing for Fed rate hikes
- Gold held steady against the dollar; up against other currencies
- Inventory to sales ratio lowest since 2008
- This week the Atlanta Fed reduced Q1 GDP down to .6%
- The second revision for Q4 could be below 2%
- Poor GDP numbers already being blamed on the weather
- Europe looked to US QE as a success because inflation was masked
- The European market is already issuing negative bonds in anticipation of ECB purchase (QE)
- The Germans are going to push back when they see inflation
- At lease Europe will be able to withstand higher rates because of smaller debt and trade deficit
- U.S. won’t be able to tolerate the consequences of rate hikes which would ultEimately heal the economy
- Therefore inevitable QE4 will be even larger than QE 1,2 & 3 combined
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