Ep. 215: Irrational Exuberance Trumps All

  • The Dow 20,000 party is going to have to wait – at least for another day
  • The Dow was down a little bit today – 23 to 19,918
  • The broader market was a bit weaker than the Dow
  • The markets continue to shrug off very weak economic news that came out throughout the day
  • We got bombarded with all sorts of negative pieces of news that ordinarily, maybe before the election of Donald Trump, would have weighed down the market
  • Certainly it would have weighed on the currency markets
  • The dollar would have been very weak and gold would have had a big rally
  • Instead, gold was down a little bit, and the dollar rose a little bit despite very weak economic data that I will get to
  • I want to start off by focusing on the stock market and the optimism which is really quite ridiculous and unfounded
  • Part of the reason for the rally, though, is a lack of selling
  • We have a lot of people mindlessly buying the markets, but you don’t have a lot of selling
  • One of the reasons is that people would rather sell in January than in December
  • People are enthusiastic about Trump’s presidency because he will cut taxes
  • If you have a gain in the stock market, why realize that gain now in the waning trading days of 2016
  • If you sell now, not only do you have to get your check into the IRS by April of next year
  • But also, you’ve got to pay the current tax rate
  • If you wait until the firs week of January, you don’t have to pay taxes until a year from this coming April
  • You have all that time to use the money and the tax rates may be a lot lower
  • So why sell now? A lot of people are being given that advice; don’t sell now – wait until January
  • Who knows – this market could ring in the new year with a major sell-off

Peter Schiff is an economist, financial broker/dealer, author, frequent guest on national news, and host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast.



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