Peter Schiff on 22-year high yields, record diesel, McDonald’s inflation warning, and Trump’s claim he told Warsh how to vote.
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Peter Schiff reviews the rise in Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and what 5% rates would mean for interest on the $40 trillion national debt. He opens with a comment Donald Trump made after the Fed’s 25 basis point hike: that he told Kevin Warsh he “might as well vote with the board.” Peter argues that either Trump is lying or, if the conversation happened, the Fed chairman is clearing his votes with the president, and that Warsh should be asked directly at the next press conference.
He then turns to the bond market. The five-year auction cleared at 5.03%, the highest in just over 20 years; the 30-year reached 5.41%, a 22-year high, and the 10-year hit 5.12%. He expects the 10/30 spread, now under 30 basis points, to widen back toward 50 or more, and suggests shorting the 30-year against the 10-year. If the government pays 5% on $40 trillion, interest would run $2 trillion a year, about 35% of tax revenue and more than Social Security, with the debt growing by more than $3 trillion a year. He says stock investors still assume yields are near a top.
McDonald’s stock fell about 5% after its CEO said inflation would stay elevated for “many more years,” which Peter contrasts with Warsh’s claim that expectations are anchored at 2%. He agrees with Warsh that growth does not cause inflation; loose monetary policy does.
Diesel set another record above $6.50 a gallon, near $10 in California. Peter argues a diesel export ban would cut production, and that drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve leaves nothing for a real emergency.
On the midterms, he notes Democrats are now 65% favorites to take the Senate, with cost of living the top issue, and blames Trump rather than Biden for inflation, while the Gulf conflict looks to be worsening. He criticizes the White House for pulling credentials from CNN, Politico and MS Now, recounts Trump’s reaction to his Fox & Friends appearance, and discusses California’s lawsuit against Trump Media over selling early access to Trump’s posts for $50,000 to $100,000 a month, which he calls insider information.
Peter closes with his Schiff Sovereign Plan B conference in Panama, which drew 130 to 140 attendees, and the story of his grandparents arriving through Ellis Island in 1902 and 1903 with no paperwork. His argument: the problem is not immigrants but the welfare state, and listeners should get their financial house in order, including gold, silver and tGold.
Chapters:
00:00 Diesel Hits Record Highs
00:52 Back From Panama Update
03:19 Trump Fed Comment Fallout
09:34 Treasury Yields Break 5%
12:42 Debt Interest Disaster Math
17:30 McDonalds Warns Inflation Years
22:20 Diesel Export Ban And SPR Risks
27:23 Midterms Senate Odds Shift
30:40 War And Media Crackdown Concerns
31:38 Press Ban Fallout
33:18 Fake News Double Standard
33:38 Fox Interview Backlash
35:54 Truth Social Insider Edge
37:12 Market Moving Posts Explained
41:13 GOP Hypocrisy Warning
43:06 Panama Plan B Conference
45:27 Why Panama Appeals
47:40 Gilded Age Tariff Myth
48:45 Open Immigration Then
55:21 Welfare State Border Reality
59:23 Plan B Portfolio Prep
59:51 Signing Off Anniversary
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