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Fed Forecasts – Propaganda or Incompetence? – Ep. 246

Summary:  Last quarter the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP  forecast was 3.4% in February. The most recent number was actually .7%.  After all the negative economic data that came out today suggesting that Q1 could be revised lower, the Atlanta Fed came out with their forecast for Q2 GDP at 4.3%.  How is this possible, with no economic data to support this projection? Either they believe their policies are still valid in the face of data on a downward trajectory, or they are simply acting as salesmen, promoting economic health regardless of the actual data.

  •  Today was Donald Trump’s 100th day as President of the United States
  • The media is covering this event and looking back over the last 100 days
  • Trying to assess the effectiveness of Trump’s presidency thus far
  • What has he accomplished, how much progress has he made;
  • I think the origin of assessing the first 100 days of a presidency goes back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt
  • Who of course became president during the Great Depression
  • I think the President accomplished a lot during his first 100 days
  • That’s been the benchmark for which future presidents have been judged
  • It’s not about which President did the most good for the country during the first 100 days
  • It’s just, “Who did the most?”
  • Because, FDR did a lot, all of it harmed the economy
  • Not only did FDR’s exacerbate and expand the depression,
  • His actions had repercussions for decades
  • We are suffering today from the mistakes that FDR made in his first 100 days
  • He accomplished a lot, but he accomplished a lot of mistakes
  • I would rather have a president do nothing for his first 100 days
  • If a President just played golf for 100 days and did nothing
  • Chances are he might be the best president we’ve ever had
  • Most Presidents do damage to the economy during their first 100 days
  • To the extent that they pass a law, chances are, the law just limited our freedom and reduced our standard of living
  • That’s true for most politicians: doing nothing is better than doing something
  • Because doing something normally means doing harm
  • I wish politicians would take the Hippocratic Oath, “First do not harm”
  • If politicians took that oath, they could not do anything
  • To the extent that a President can undo the damage done by a previous President
  • Then, he would be doing a good thing
  • I recognize that some of the things that Trump is trying to do is to undo Obama’s mistakes