- Happy 4th of July to everyone
- Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny
- I will be back on the radio again – I’ll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out
- I will be doing tomorrow’s show – the second hour of the show
- The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday
- The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000
- The unemployment rate of 5.5% last month was expected to come in at 5$% – actually came in at 5.3%, the lowest unemployment rate in 7 years
- Great news, right? Not great news
- The devil is in the details
- The Labor Force Participation Rate – 62.9 last month – plunged down to 62.6%
- This is the lowest rate since 1977
- 432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June – twice the number of people who got jobs in June
- Once again, these new jobs are low-paying service sector jobs
- During the Obama “recovery” we have lost 1.4 million manufacturing jobs and gained 1.4 million wait staff and bartender jobs
- According to the Household Survey 640,000 Americans left the labor force in June
- Now we have a record 93.6 million Americans no longer in the labor force
- The Household Survey reports 349,000 jobs were lost during the month
- The only net gain – 161,000 part time jobs – represent a net loss
- The Household Survey shows that we lost good jobs
- When asked about the Labor Force Participation Rate number, Secretary of Labor Perez commented, “One month does not a trend make.”
- This trend has been going down every month of every year that President Obama has been in office
- Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would not start raising rates without “further improvement in the labor market”
- She specifically cited the Labor Force Participation Rate and proliferation of part-time jobs as troubling trends
- We are now further from that goal
- The demographic leaving the labor force are young people who cannot find jobs
- Average Hourly Earnings, to increase .2, actually came in flat, at zero
- Last month’s .3 increase was revised down to .2, failing to beat the estimate
- Weekly Jobless Claims expected to come in at 270,000, actually came in at 281,000 and I think this number is going to go higher
- There have been fewer hires and fewer fires than expected because the estimates were based on the Birth/Death model, that is proving inaccurate
- Factory Orders are down for 9 of the last 10 months – this month we were looking for -.3% and we got -1%
- April was originally reported as -.4 but was revised down to -.7
- Year over year Factory Orders are down 6.3% (adjusted)
- The only time we have seen numbers this weak is during a recession
- The economy is in worse shape now that when QE3 was launched
- Yet the markets did not react to these bad numbers
- They still cling to the narrative that the Fed is going to raise rates because the U.S. economy is in good shape
- Article on Motley Fool refers to me as someone who was “right for the wrong reason”
- The misquoted me on my prediction on (mortgage)interest rates going up
- After I made that statement, interest rates did go up for 2 years – they did not go down until after the bubble burst
- The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5-1/2 percent
- This quote was taken out of context – read my 2007 book, “Crash Proof”
- There are dozens of articles about the real estate bubble 2004-2007
- The record shows that I was right for all the right reasons
- I did think the dollar would go down after the housing bubble burst, but by the time the bubble burst the dollar was at a record low
- The mainstream media would like to discredit my earlier predictions in order to discount my current predictions
- The higher interest rates I predicted have not happened yet because a dollar crisis will precede the rise in interest rates
- The fact that we have delayed the day of reckoning for so long means that we will have more to reckon with when the day ultimately arrives
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