- The odds of a December rate hike continue to ratchet up above 70%
- We had a parade of Fed officials, most recently again today coming out and talking about why a December rate hike is a good idea, probable, possible, appropriate
- You name the adjective, some Federal Reserve president, governor is discussing it
- The markets are ratcheting up their expecations
- The dollar index continues to move higher, we hit about a 9-month high today
- We got above 99; but we didn’t close there, in fact the dollar index managed to close down a notch
- Interestingly enough, gold had a pretty strong day today, we had about I think we’re at $12.73
- Even to the extent the FOREX traders are worried about a December rate hike, the gold traders don’t seem to care about how a rate hike might impact the price of gold
- This says either the gold traders don’t believe that a December rate hike is coming, or they’ve correctly concluded that even if the Fed does raise interest rates in December, it’s no big deal
- It’s too little too late to be a negative for the gold market
- The Fed is going to deliver far less than it promised when it comes to rate hikes
- In fact the most interesting comment from a Fed official came last week from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
- He said that the Federal Reserve only needs to nudge interest rates up by 25 basis points
- Right now, the official rate of Fed funds is between .25 and .50
- It used to be between 0 and 25
- I think where we actually are right now is 38 basis points
- So if we moved up 25, at least these are the numbers Bullard is throwing out, we’d move up to 63 basis points for the Fed Funds Rate
- Which is just barely above a half point
- He says that’s all we need to do is nudge it up to 63 basis points, and that’s it – we’re done
- He said, “We need to do it in December, but then that’s it, interest rates are going to stay really low for years.”
- He’s talking 2 or 3 years or maybe even more of ultra low interest rates, despite whatever is happening in employment, and inflation
- This is all we need
- Nudging up by a quarter basis point and we’re done
- I was surprised, to be honest, that we didn’t get more of a reaction to this admission by Bullard that the next hike, if it comes in December is the end of it
- If that’s it and then we’re on hold for years
- Sometime, during that period of time, we’re going to find ourselves back in recession
- Even if we’re not in recession now
- Even if this so-called recovery is in its twilight
- Remember this is the 3rd longest recovery of the post-war era and it is the weakest recovery – ever
- And, of course, it has the most stimulus
- So despite having the most stimulus, it’s the weakest
- Clearly, it’s going to run out of steam
- So if the Fed does in fact raise rates ever so slightly in December and then say:
- “That’s it for now, we’re just going to wait”
- What’s going to happen is, we’ll be back in recession
- If Hillary Clinton becomes the next president, and it’s looking more and more likely that that nightmare will become a reality
- If she is, she will try to stimulate the economy
- Look what happened with George Bush
- When George Bush was initially elected the first time, he inherited the bursting of the dot com bubble
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