Trump Jumps to Tweet on Mediocre Jobs Numbers
This morning the Labor Department released the July Non Farm Payroll numbers and Donald Trump tweeted,”Excellent Jobs Numbers just released – and I have only just begun.” Many job stifling regulations continue to fall. Movement back to USA!” What is excellent about these numbers? If you look at the household survey reveals that we created 393,000 part time jobs during the month, and we lost 54,000 full time jobs. Candidate Trump complained about these types of numbers. He talked about the proliferation of part time jobs and the loss of full time jobs on the campaign trail, yet now, it’s “excellent news!”.
Small Rise in Manufacturing Jobs
Although the report was not a disaster, it was not greater than many we’ve seen under the Obama Administration. The expectation was for a gain of 178,000 and we beat it. We came out with 209,000, which is really not a lot of jobs. Given the size of the American economy, creating 200,000 jobs in a month is really not a lot of jobs. But exceeding this rather low bar gives rise to over-exuberant headlines over a strong jobs report. In fact they did revise last month’s gain of 222,000 up to 231,000 and this month’s was better than estimates. The unemployment rate did tick back down to 4.3; remember it jumped up to 4.4 and now it’s back down to 4.3. We did gain 16,000 in manufacturing jobs and they did revise upward last month’s gain from 1,000 to 12,000, so that is somewhat good news, although as a percentage of the overall jobs, it is small.
What’s the Real Unemployment Rate?
The Labor force participation rate did ratchet up one tenth, back to 62.9; still very low. Wages rose .3% meeting expectations, and most numbers remained status quo. It’s not a disaster of a report but it is not spectacular. We had plenty similar reports under Obama, which were previously labeled “fraud”. The unemployment rate is low, and candidate Trump was saying, “The real unemployment rate is closer to 49%”. What’s the real unemployment rate now?
Are the Numbers B.S.?
The question is, “Was candidate Donald Trump being honest? Did he really believe the numbers were phony or was he just saying that?” Or, was he being dishonest as a candidate and is he being honest as a president? Was he and honest candidate or was he being dishonest? Does he realize that these numbers are B.S. yet embracing them anyway to feather his own nest, when the economy is behaving exactly as it did when Obama was President.
Counting Jobs Twice
If you look at the jobs, about 40% of the jobs created were in leisure and hospitality, which was the #1 category, and then healthcare and education. We have record numbers of people now tending bar and waiting tables, although these are probably part time workers being counted multiple times as Obamacare drove away full time employment.