Upon What Data Does the Fed Depend? – Ep. 100

  • This is my 100th Podcast
  • This new format allows for timely analysis when is is most convenient for me and for you, the listener
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  • Today a bombshell was dropped on the labor markets on Friday in the form of Employment Cost Index
  • Measures the cost to employers: wages and benefits
  • The expected increase was .6, but the actual number came in at just .2 for the quarter
  • This the weakest number since 1982, since they began keeping records
  • Janet Yellen has been saying that improvements in the labor market must precede a rate hike
  • This is understood to mean wages, labor participation rate and full time vs part time jobs
  • We’re 0 for three, right now – all three are falling
  • As soon as this number came out, they dollar sold hard
  • But then, the dollar clawed its way back, and gold was down again – gold stocks got crushed – Why?
  • Jon Hilsenrath, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, came out with an article, speaking for the Fed, stating that the Fed does not need wage growth to hike rates
  • Really? The Fed is going out of its way to preserve the pretense that it can actually raise rates
  • They are seeking the psychological effect of rate hikes without the real world damage of actual rate hikes
  • If the Fed still believes it won’t raise rates unless the labor market improves and they are taking wage hikes off the table, then what are they waiting for?
  • The other two remaining criteria are still down
  • Janet Yellen still says she’s data dependent and all the data that she is depending on is negative
  • The stock market looks very toppy – it looks like it will roll over and when it does the Fed will bring in the cavalry in the form of stimulus
  • The Fed built the recovery on a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble
  • Ben Bernanke’s goal for 7 years was to create a “wealth effect” on assets that are now at risk – they are not going to let them collapse
  • All of the data would argue for no rate hike in September
  • Janet Yellen is implying, by talking about rate hikes, that she believes that the economy is going to improve, when all signs indicate the opposite
  • Therefore traders are ignoring bad economic data because they trust that Janet Yellen believes the economy will improve soon
  • Don’t pay any attention to the man behind the curtain, because Janet Yellen says the bad news is not real
  • We can all see the negative data, but no one wants to acknowledge it because Janet Yellen is not recognizing it publicly
  • They buy the dollar, they sell gold and there is a dichotomy between those who don’t own gold and have no ability to deliver it and are selling gold to those who don’t actually want it – they are gambling on the price of gold
  • The amount of gold being gambled is greater than ever before
  • Sales for those who want to hold gold are skyrocketing – the mints are running out of supply
  • We are running out of some of our silver
  • Schiff Gold
  • Our customers who buy gold and silver are not offering to sell – they are buying more
  • They are reacting to lower prices
  • On the other side of the coin, clients are reacting negatively to the high dollar weighing on the relative value of foreign stocks
  • This is an opportunity to use the high dollar to buy much more highly valued stocks that are not dollar denominated
  • The dollar bubble will burst and it is a dangerous game to hold out to the very end.
  • From a market point of view, the foreign stocks we recommended years ago are an even better value now, because the dollar will buy more
  • CORRECTION TO AUDIO: Not because they are in worse shape, they are in much better shape.
  • If you are not already positioned the train will leave the station and you’re not on it
  • This is an important train, because there’s not another one coming
  • Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth – take advantage of the opportunity now
  • This is one of the best opportunities I have seen to sell U.S. dollars and accumulate quality assets around the world, physical precious metals and any companies that operate in the mining space where prices are the cheapest they have ever been in history

Peter Schiff is an economist, financial broker/dealer, author, frequent guest on national news, and host of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast.



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