- Government’s first look at Q1 GDP
- There was a lot of optimism around Q1 with expectations above 3%
- Actual GDP was 1/5 of expectations at.2%
- The rest of the story of Q1 GDP:
- The deflator this time was negative – meaning that prices dropped by .1%
- The last time the deflator was negative was 2009 Q2; still in the Great Recession
- The previous occurrence of a negative deflator was in 1949
- I believe the true rate of inflation is higher than -.1%
- Inventory build continued into Q1 – businesses continue to believe the myth of the recovery
- Inventory to sales ratio are the highest they have been since the Great Recession
- They are still blaming poor economic performance on the weather. It is always cold in the winter; why is bad weather always a surprise?
- The Fed just released their official statement on interest rate policy
- They removed language from statement indicating it is unlikely that rates will rise
- Continuing give the illusion that they are progressing toward a point when they will raise interest rates
- The Fed went out of its way to dismiss all the bad economic news we got in Q1
- The dollar just had its biggest 2-day decline in 6 years
- The Fed came out and put a smiley face on the whole thing and the dollar recovered somewhat
- The Fed is never going to confess that they are worried; that’s not their job
- What evidence is there that things will improve in Q2?
- Cheap gas windfall is over; oil prices have risen every week in the past month
- Early April economic data is negative
- An economy based on spending is a bubble; production grows an economy
- Consumers have lots of debt, but they don’t have good jobs
- Decline in the dollar signals that the markets are already sensing this
- The Fed feels that economic growth will recover in Q2 & Q3
- They also said they need to see additional strength in the labor market
- Business are making foolish decisions because they believe the Fed
- As the economy disappoints, the labor market will continue to deteriorate
- The Fed can’t raise interest rates and they are headed ror QE4
- We need more and more stimulus because we’ve built up a resistance
- The real crisis will be a dollar crisis
- When the economy heads south and the Fed has to do QE 4, the Fed will lose a lot of credibility
- Janet Yellen will not be able to deliver on her promise to shrink the balance sheet by the end of the decade
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