Ep. 471: Mexico Won’t Pay for the Wall or the Tariffs

Sell in May and Go Away

U.S. stocks closed out the week and the month of May with heavy losses; the DJIA down 354.84 points.  Pretty much going out near the low of the day. That’s a drop of 1.4%. NASDAQ also getting killed – 114.57 down – that was a 1.5% decline on the day.  The Russell 2000 continues to melt down.  That index falling 20 points – down 1.35% on the day.  But the biggest losses continue to be in the Dow Jones Transports. That index was down almost 2% – 1.9% – 188.4 points.  This is the worst May for U.S stocks since 2010. The Dow is down about 7% just in the month of May. Remember, “Sell in May and go away”?   Well it hasn’t worked in a while, but this was a great time to sell May first!

Russell 2000 and Dow Transports Weakest Indexes

Again, I told everybody that I thought the bear market rally was over based on the Fed not being as dovish as the markets expected, and it’s been down hill from there.  If you look at the Russell 2000 and the Transports, these two indexes did not make new highs. Remember the Dow and the S&P, the NASDAQ made new highs. Now, they’re all down considerably – the Dow is 8% off those highs now. But the Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports did not make new highs, and now they are the weakest index and now the Russell 2000 is down just under 16% from its peak, and the Transports – over 16%.  So both of those indexes are about 4% points away from being officially back in bear market territory, which means 20% from the highs.  We could easily be there next week,  on these stocks.

Debacle du Jour: Gap

Now the other indexes have further to go, I mean the NASDAQ is only down about 9% from its peak.  So 1% away from what Wall Street would officially call a “correction”.  The retailers continue to also be hammered.  The Debacle du Jour was Gap, which gapped down by about 15% on the day on weaker than expected sales. The stock managed to rally most of the day, so it only closed down a little over 9%.  But still, it closed better than 47% below its 52-week high.

Domestically Focused Stocks Weakest

But, when you have the Russell 2000 and the Transports the weakest part of the market, those are the most domestically focused stocks. Those are the stocks that are the weakest.  So everybody who keeps talking about how great the U.S. economy is, if they look at the market, the market is telling you a different story.