- The Dow just finished its worst month in over 4 years
- A lot has happened in the market since I recorded my last podcast
- When I recorded that podcast, I had anticipated a “Turnaround Tuesday” where the market would gap up, but then sell off by the close
- That is exactly what happened
- Then the Dow had its biggest 3-day rally in history
- Still that record-setting rise was not enough to repair the damage done that was done earlier
- The Dow had its biggest down month in over 4 years
- Still in official correction territory
- Adding woes to the stock market are Fed comments that September rate hikes are not off the table
- This will continue to add pressure on the markets
- If this week’s Non-Farm Payroll number is positive, it could be very dangerous for the Dow Jones
- Technically, the market is very vulnerable, and without the Fed’s support there is little to stop the correction from progressing into a bear market
- All of the big money is starting to sell stocks because they believe the Fed may raise rates
- The market will keep falling until the Fed cries, “Uncle!”
- Once the Fed comes to the rescue, big money will start buying again
- The Fed is still ignoring negative economic data, such as today’s August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey which came in at -15.8
- There is probably not going to be much change in the unemployment number, no matter how weak the economy is
- Walmart is now cutting back on hours because they increased wages earlier
- As long as the Fed is continuing to bluff that rate hikes are on the table for September or October, this market will be under a lot of pressure
- If we close below the lows of last Monday, it is going to get ugly really fast
- The Fed doesn’t want the market to connect the dots directly from monetary policy to market performance
- That would illustrate how unsustainable its policies really are
- I compared the Fed’s tactics to trying to yank the table out from under the tablecloth, rather than the tablecloth out from under the dishes
- The Fed was basing the whole recovery on lifting the asset markets
- As soon as the Fed stops lifting, the recovery goes away
- One of the interesting things today was the reversal in oil prices
- One of the few times oil prices rose, and the stock market didn’t
- Over the last 3 three days, we’ve had better than a $10 increase in the price of oil
- Oil needs to go up quite a bit more before we can say a bottom is in
- An end to rate hike rhetoric will knock the support out from under the dollar and that the strong dollar is undermining global demand for crude oil
- I was in Jackson Hole during The Federal Reserve’s Annual Economic Policy Symposium to participate in the American Principles Project Economic Summit, which was a protest against Fed policy
- Concurrent to our conference another organization called, “Fed Up”, sponsored by the AFLCIO and Black Lives Matter
- Working class protesters carried signs encouraging the Fed to keep interest rates down and target higher inflation
- How is that going to help these working-class “protestors”?
- These participants probably had very little knowledge of the Fed or monetary policy
- The American Principles Project Economic Summit was denied access to the resort where the Fed Summit met because for security reasons, citing that other group was allowed to meet in that venue
- “Fed Up”, however, was allowed to meet in the same venue as the Federal Reserve
- I think “Fed Up” conference was staged. They conveniently provided a backdrop of signs encouraging more of the Fed’s existing monetary policy
- The protest I participated in was sharply critical of the Fed’s monetary policy, calling for an end to the the false support that has created asset market bubbles
- My thesis is that the Fed’s talk of raising rates is just a show and the “Fed Up” protesters’ signs are just part of that show
- The irony that is lost on everybody is that the protesters understand that the economy is bad, but they believe the Fed will help by creating more inflation
- The very monetary policy their signs ask for more of is ther reason that there is no recovery in their communities
- More Quantitive Easing isn’t the solution, Quantitive Easing is the problem
- If the Fed decides not to raise interest rates, who benefits? Not the poor. They will continue to lose jobs and experience inflation
- Only the 1%, Wall Street, will benefit from continued zero percent interest rates
- On a final note, I want to mention again that my offshore bank, Euro Pacific Bank, is hiring
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