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Fiscal Stimulus Impossible Without Monetary Stimulus To Finance It – Ep. 210

  • What a difference a day makes
  • Between Tuesday evening, when the markets first began to realize that Donald Trump was going to win the election and the predictions of collapsing stocks and soaring gold prices appear to be taking hold
  • Because at one point the Dow was down about 800 points and gold was up about $60
  • All of a sudden, the sentiment started to shift and by the time the U.S. markets had opened for trading
  • Gold had lost its rally, the stock market had recovered its losses
  • And we began a huge rally, in fact, the Dow was up about 1,000 points this week
  • This was one of the biggest up weeks in the Dow since 2011
  • Also the gold market ended up down, I think it was down about $70 on the week
  • Better than $100 below the high it hit on Tuesday night
  • Silver also down about $1
  • Gold & silver stocks down closer to 20%
  • The opposite was going on in the bond market, it had its worst week since 2013
  • It looks like a lot more carnage can come if we really start to break down; yields are still low
  • The yield on the 10-year is just above 2.1 and on the 30-year it’s just above 2.9
  • These are still low yields, but they’re not nearly as low as they were
  • What’s more important is the momentum in this move and how much higher interest rates could potentially go
  • As this bond bubble deflates
  • What is responsible for this change of heart?
  • Everybody was so convinced that the markets would tank if Trump was elected that we had a 300+ point rally on Monday, the day after the FBI decided that they weren’t going to do anything about the Clinton email scandal
  • And the market rallied because people thought, “Oh, OK, this means that Hillary is a shoe-in.”
  • And then Trump became President and the market rallied even more
  • And the opposite on gold; gold sold off when it looked like Hillary would win, and it had a big rally when it seemed that she wouldn’t
  • After we got Trump, the metals went the other way
  • What is responsible for this change of heart?
  • Remember, I always said if didn’t make sense that people thought Hillary was good for the stock market
  • What did Hillary mean for business?
  • More regulation, more government, higher taxes
  • What was Donald Trump promising?
  • He was promising tax cuts, tax reform, repatriation, regulatory reform, repeal Dodd-Frank, repeal Obamacare
  • So he’s saying, we’re going to take away the regulation, we’re going to take away the taxes
  • That has got to be good for the economy, so why were people so excited about Hillary
  • When Trump was talking about a pro-growth, pro-business agenda?